Since 2025, the major democracies have been faltering: In France, a whirlwind of Pprime ministers and the government’s inability… to govern, in the United States, and and the executive branch’s flirtation withilliberalism; in the United Kingdom, the erosion of certain civil liberties and the surge of populists in the polls. Mundermined, the institutions are holding firm. Buthow long will this last?
Can we sum up the chaos? When it comes to 2025, that’s no easy task! The year wasn’t just “full” of upheavals: from a democratic standpoint, one could say it was almost entirely thrown into disarray. Here and there, at home and abroad, it was marked by a succession of political upheavals—often unprecedented—creating a pervasive sense that the ground is shifting beneath our feet and our points of reference are disappearing.
A crisis is never limited to its triggering event. It is also a combination of perceptions, reactions, and emotions. And a succession of crises creates a state of constant uncertainty in which the exceptional becomes the norm and the temporary takes hold. The year 2025 has given rise to a world where there is no shortage of information, but rather a lack of shared frameworks for interpreting it. Everything is up for debate (and rarely with the equanimity befitting civic discourse); everything becomes suspect; everything is rushed. Institutions are holding out, but they are cracking on all sides. And, in this great chaos, predictability is disappearing—yet it is an essential ingredient of economic life and also (and above all) a key factor in citizens’ psychological well-being.
The institutions are holding on, but barely. In France, 2025 was a year of democratic suffocation. The Constitution has become less a framework for stability than a DIY kit for institutional survival: the fall of two governments, incessant threats of Article 49.3, talk of special laws, and last-minute compromises on bizarre bills secured through unlikely alliances—bills that are met with near-unanimous opposition. What was once exceptional—or inconceivable—is now becoming the norm. The Fifth Republic has certainly demonstrated its resilience and strength in weathering these trials. But resilience that is overtaxed eventually begins to resemble wear and tear. And mistrust is spreading toward public discourse, and even toward representative democracy itself. This provides fresh fuel for the rejection of elites.
In the United Kingdom, the birthplace of civil liberties, intense tension has arisen over the right to protest and freedom of expression. Since the Public Order Act of 2023, the police have had the authority to restrict or outlaw certain forms of protest, which has sparked intense reactions ranging from legitimate frustration to xenophobic manipulation. The arrest at the airport of a filmmaker who had criticized transgender activists on X also sparked a heated controversy. Given the current polarization, the days are clearly gone when anyone could harangue the crowd—even excessively—at Hyde Park Corner, and when demonstrations took place under the placid gaze of the “bobbies.” England is painfully questioning its values. Populist Nigel Farage is capitalizing on the resulting anger.
On a global scale, 2025 and then early 2026 will have first confirmed the abrupt return of the balance of power. Donald Trump will have been a powerful catalyst, embracing this approach without mincing words. Domestically, this is evident in the abuses committed by the quasi-militia ICE—covered up by the White House—and the numerous lawsuits filed by a president against his opponents, whether they be lawyers, heads of independent agencies, or even judges. On the international stage, it is the method of deals, threats, shock announcements, and strategic about-faces. The entire planet seems caught in the flashes of a perpetual strobe light: an announcement, a reaction, a retreat, a counter-announcement.
Faced with this hardening of attitudes, Europe—which had long set the standard and promoted conciliatory values that it believed could not be seriously challenged—was forced to adopt a different approach based, internally, on easing restrictions and simplifying democratic processes, and, externally, on military and political rearmament: faith in “friendly trade” has been seriously shaken by the tariff war, and the lofty goal of universal peace is no longer relevant in the short term, since it is being challenged—and even threatened—by the Americans themselves.
Democracy is no longer what it used to be—that much is clear. Is it on the verge of collapse, or of transformation? It’s too early to tell. The threat is deep-seated and multifaceted, ranging from the polarization fueled by social media to manipulation by countries that do not have our best interests at heart. It will not disappear overnight. But everywhere, forces of resistance remain and are reawakening.
It is undoubtedly a pipe dream to hope for a return to the not-so-distant era when we could dream of the “End of History” (Fukuyama). Restoring “order” to the world—if that is even possible—will take time, and that “order” will no longer be the one we once knew. In the meantime, for those involved in politics and geopolitics, the battle has become one of reputation. It hinges on credibility, on the authority of one’s words, and on the ability to provide reliable points of reference. In the “great democratic bazaar” we are navigating, it is less a matter of claiming to control the future than of showing that we do not want to let the times decide for us who we are. And that, in a world of posturing, we hold strong and sincere convictions.
Arthur Arlaud and Thomas Thévenoud
